ReThink Health Dynamics
Can simulating health care improve the real thing?
Important health innovations often begin with a “What if…” question. However, the full implications of such questions are rarely explored because innovators typically cannot think through the complexities of the health system with their unaided minds. To bring structure, evidence, and creativity to this process, and achieve better results, Bobby Milstein, PhD, MPH, and an award-winning team of MIT-affiliated experts are working with collaborations in diverse regions across the country to bring the established techniques of simulation modeling and game-based learning to regional health planning and action.
It has been well-established that formal simulation modeling, despite its limitations and uncertainties, can enhance critical thinking in and about complex systems, including the health system. Some landmark articles on this methodology are listed in the Resources section.
MODELING LOCAL HEALTH SYSTEMS
Building upon decades of prior work, we are now developing a suite of system dynamics simulation models and interactive games to support innovation among veteran leaders who are working to improve performance of their local health systems. These tools are currently in various stages of development and they remain open to evolve in new directions based on user input and evolving research.
A prototype version of the ReThink Health simulation model is now being configured for use in the following five pilot regions.
Pueblo County, Colorado
Manchester, New Hampshire
Alameda County, California
Contra Costa County, California
Whatcom County, Washington
In each location, this tool serves as an integrative, yet simplified, representation of local health system dynamics. It tracks changes in population health, health care delivery, health equity, and health care costs under a variety of conditions—all within a single, testable analytic framework that is tied to many sources of empirical data.
The main purpose of this tool is to estimate the likely consequences over time for dozens of interventions that may be enacted at a local or regional level.
Simulated scenarios featuring one or more of these broad, strategic interventions may be studied as a prelude to action in the real world. By first simulating alternative actions, stakeholders may expose schemes that have significant downsides, and also build support for strategies with the greatest potential to improve health system performance.